Opposition parties ‘can oust conservatives’ if they cooperate on seats | Preservatives

The Tories would be deprived of their majority and unable to form a government if opposition parties co-operated in less than a quarter of England’s parliamentary seats, according to a major new analysis.

The Best for Britain study, which campaigns for a more internationalist government, found that if Labor, Liberal Democrats and Greens could agree to field a candidate for unity in each of the 154 seats on the battlefield English, the Conservatives would end up with only 254 English. Deputies, seven less than Labor, which has 261 English deputies. The Liberal Democrats would win 16 English seats and the Greens one.

The numbers emerged from the same kind of polling technique – multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) – which correctly predicted Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States in 2016 and the surprise victory of the Labor Party. by Jeremy Corbyn in Canterbury in 2017.

The MRP method involves using a large survey (in this case Best for Britain surveyed 12,816 people across the country) and adding in vast amounts of other information, from censuses and official data from national statistics, to predict how people in different areas, across social divisions and income and age groups, would vote.

If opposition parties put forward single-unit candidates, the MRP’s polling exercise revealed, the Tories would end up with 40 seats less than the majority, even if they managed to keep their 20 Scottish and Welsh seats and obtained the support of the DUP. , which currently has eight seats in the House of Commons.

Among the Conservatives’ most prominent casualties is Jacob Rees-Mogg in northeast Somerset: he would narrowly lose with the seat going to Labor, according to the analysis.

The same fate would befall Iain Duncan Smith, who would also be ousted by Labor in Chingford and Woodford Green, while Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab would lose to Liberal Democrats in Esher and Walton. Boris Johnson is also reportedly led by Labor in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, with his margin of victory reduced to 3% by Labor, from 15% in 2019.

While supporters of such alliances insist they are the only way for center-left parties to oust the Tories, opposition party leaders have always been reluctant to consider anything other than very informal deals. , such as reducing operations in unearned seats. They fear that taking a step back is seen as a sign of weakness and lack of national ambition.

Labor opponents of so-called progressive alliances interpret the party’s own rule as saying that under its constitution it must field candidates for all parliamentary seats, whether in general or by-elections, except in exceptional circumstances . But this is disputed by supporters of cooperation who say such a rule does not exist.

Ed Davey has said the Lib Dems will not fight Labor in the Old Bexley and Sidcup byelections. Photography: Tayfun Salcı / Rex

Last week, Lib Dem frontman Ed Davey cast a more positive note on cooperation. He told the Observer that his party would only target one of the next two by-elections in the seats held by the Conservatives.

While rejecting the official “deals or arrangements”, he suggested his party would not invest significant resources in the London headquarters of Old Bexley and Sidcup, where voters go to the polls on Thursday, and Labor is the main challenger. He said the Lib Dems would instead focus on next month’s by-elections in North Shropshire, the secure Tory seat left vacant by Owen Paterson following his official rebuke for the lobbying.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said left-wing parties should abandon their reluctance to work together: “In 2017 and 2019, right-wing parties have chosen not to fight in the main fringe, and will do so. probably again. . This poll shows that opposition parties must do the same because… there is no other way to power. The refusal of Labor and Lib Dem leaders to cooperate, form a government and make change is a failure for the people and communities these parties seek to represent.

“In 1997, the Labor NEC and the Lib Dem superiors chose not to oppose the anti-sleaze candidate Martin Bell who beat the Conservative MP embroiled in the scandal. Corruption and bribery are back in force and the cooperation of opposition parties should be too.

“As the saying goes, you can’t fatten a calf on market day and working to coordinate that strategy has to start now.”

Best for Britain argues that such cooperation would only be necessary for one general election if a new government subsequently introduced voting reform.

Comments are closed.